Yep, look, so we might be a month out from actual NBA basketball happening again… but we kick off the NBA Straya Season preview next week with a look at our specific tiers of contenders, pretenders, spenders, on-the-menders and Dragan Benders.
BEFORE THAT, however, we’re gonna get stuck into 7 WAY TOO EARLY predictions for the upcoming season (along with a peak at some corresponding odds).
Stuff that we’re kinda-halfway-definitely-maybe certain of. Y’know… that isn’t just like ‘Zion will be good’, ‘The Knicks will be trash’, and ‘Space Jam 2 will suck’. Which it will. Actually. Maybe that’s a good one? Hmm… Anyway. Let’s get to it.
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DEVIN BOOKER WILL GIVE THE SCORING TITLE A SHAKE
His team sucks. It’s his fourth year in the NBA… but he only turns 23 (!!) at the end of October. He already averaged 26.6 pts a game LAST year… and drastically upped his efficiency inside the arc (53.6% vs 46% the year before) on the same amount of attempts AND his FT attempts continue to rise. Yeah, his 3pt shooting dipped last year (32.6% vs 38.3% in 2018)… but I’ll put that down to having literally no other half-decent offensive option on the court with him and having to create more out of nothing than he had ever before.
Now with another year into DeAndre Ayton, and new additions in the Homie Dario Saric, the Man Mountain From Mareeba Aron Bangers Baynes and, most importantly, AN ACTUAL POINT GUARD to play beside in RRicky Ticky Ta-Ta Rubio, I think Booker could easily have a Carmelo-is season where his team sucks, but he’s put in a better position to score often and at will… and could easily average close to 30 points a game. Aaaaand when you see that he’s +1500 to win the scoring title… sorry, I drifted off and put all my money on that. Ahem.
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BECAUSE OF LUKA DONCIC & KRISTAPS PORZINGIS, THE MAVS WILL BE A PLAYOFF TEAM…
AND Luka’s name will be bandied about in the MVP conversation in early going…
We talked about this on Episode 330 of NBA Straya with Dallas Mavericks wing Ryan Broekhoff… but the Mavs are quietly stacked. The tasty part is, they’re currently +350 to make the playoffs over at Sportsbet. Which I think is nuts. Yes, the West is stacked — but everyone seems to forget that Porzingis — when healthy — is one of the most unique and dominant players in the league. Teaming him up with 2nd year Luka and a slew of rangy, shooting wings, — as well as scoring guards like Tim Hardaway the Lesser and Seth Curry — will equal a HEAP of regular season wins… So not only do I like the look of the Mavs in the playoffs, I obviously like their ‘over’ odds (most places seem to have them slotted in the ‘uhhh we dunno’ range of 40.5 wins) … and even a sneaky look at Luka for MVP (at +5100!!!)
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RUSSELL WESTBROOK & JAMES HARDEN WILL WORK IN HOUSTON BUT THEY’RE NOT GONNA WIN THE TITLE
So… Houston is weird. On paper, sure, this could work out. Buttttttttt we’ve also kinda just seen this before with the Rockets… two lead ball handlers, just with Russell Westbrook and his brick-tactic approach to 3-pt shooting and lackadaisical approach to defense replacing old-grumpy-ass Chris Paul who would always go missing in big moments and get hurt at the worst possible moment.
AND THAT WORKED! So I fully expect the Rockets to strafe the regular season, just as they did two seasons ago on their way to 60+ wins, and win their division handily over the ‘meh’ Spurs… but then they’ll also have a weird head-space battle between Harden & Westbrook when they hit the playoffs… where they’ll eventually fall short against wing-defense-heavy teams like OH I DUNNO, THE CLIPPERS AND LAKERS!?!? And this seems borne out by their odds…
According to the average consensus of the odds reviewed by this site The Rockets are heavy -275 favorites to finish atop the Southwest, followed by the Spurs at a distant +450. But they only have the fifth-best odds to win the 2020 NBA title, sitting at roughly +900. They trail the new-look Clippers and Lakers (both around +350), along with Eastern Conference favorites Milwaukee (+450) and Philadelphia (+800).
So yeah… I like the Rockets… but I don’t like ‘em for the title.
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MYLES TURNER WILL WIN MOST IMPROVED PLAYER … AND DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR
I was in the media scrum after the Boomers-USA games and had three thoughts. 1) Donovan Mitchell isn’t much taller than I am… he 100% tops out at like 6-3 max… 2) Jayson Tatum is wayyyyy too quiet to be an NBA superstar and also gets a bit of a boost from whatever height he’s listed at… and 3) Myles Turner is f**king HUUUUUGE. If his Aussie nickname was Stringbean you wouldn’t bat an eyelid but it also wouldn’t come close to doing him justice. Dude just keeps on going skyward. I’ve felt less short standing next to the Eureka Tower.
Anyway, the point is… I expected Turner to tear up the FIBA World Cup… and he proceeded to average 7 & 7 and only attempt 10 3-pointers for the entire tournament. Yikes. Double yikes when you’re like ‘Myles Turner fancies himself an outside shooter but only hit 3 in a tournament where the line is closer than in the NBA. Double yikes. BUT. Buuuuuut… Myles did average basically 2 blocks a game while only playing 20 minutes a contest.
Remember, last season he led the league with 2.69 blocks a game… and as he and the Souvlaki King Domatas Sabonis figure out how to work together better, I only expect his defensive nous and reputation to grow. If Myles’ offensive game finally shows signs of living up to its potential alongside Sabonis and the rejiggered Pacer backcourt of Malcolm Brogdon next to WIKTOR OLADIPO — say somewhere along the lines of 14-16 pts, 12-13 rebounds and 3.5 blocks a game — then we’re on the fast track to Pacer domination and a Myles Turner MIP and DPOY candidacy (at +2100 at the moment!!! For the guy who led the league in blocks!!).
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BIG SIMMO BEN SIMMONS WILL SHOOT — AND MAKE — A THREE THIS SEASON
It’s inevitable. Also, it’ll be a relief… when it comes to Big Simmo I’m as sick of conversations about shooting as bloody Jackie O.
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RJ BARRETT, NOT ZION WILLIAMSON, WILL BE YOUR ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
The Duke hype train will remain undefeated, but I think the NYC media avalanche around RJ will dwarf the three formerly-sadsack Pelican beat-writers tasked with following Zion… and I feel like there will be a a weird mix of non-delivery of a playoff spot downer-vibes from the Pels and maybe a tweaked quad or something that causes Zion to miss 20 odd games… meanwhile RJ will be more solid than 1997 Tony Lockett and show flashes of star potential for the Knicks… which to Knicks fans will feel like winning the bloody championship.
Seriously: the Canadian has a half decent season and they’ll want to lift his jersey to the rafters… but luckily for them, I predict he has a better-than-average season and rides a wave of ‘MY GAWWWWD, the KNICKS DID SOMETHING RIGHT!’ to Rookie of the Year. (And currently at +550… it’s worth a peek)
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MATTHEW DELLAVEDOVA WILL WIN ANOTHER NBA CHAMPIONSHIP
King Delly of Maryborough & Canada, First of his Name, Stopper of Currys, Gatherer of Loose Balls & Smasher of Tins is currently on the Cleveland Cavaliers… which is where, obviously, he won his first NBA title. Unfortunately, in a world full of uncertainty… one thing is certain: the Cavs are definitely NOT winning the NBA title this season.
Which means Friend of the Show Matthew Dellavedova will be traded… and I’m predicting it will be to one of the LA teams, OR joining up with his mate Ben Simmons in Philly after Philly realise they have a few ball-handling problems on their 2nd & 3rd units.
And nothing would be sweeter for Australia this year after that FIBA World Cup than seeing King Delly and Big Simmo Ben Simmons draining threes and then a bunch of Corona tins after winning the NBA title.
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